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セミナー 2004/12/7-2

リスク研究センターセミナー報告

澤田 康幸氏 (東京大学大学院経済学研究科助教授)

「Are People Insured Against Natural Disasters?
Evidence from the Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake in 1995」


日時: 平成16年12月7日(火)16:30~18:00 
会場: 滋賀大学経済学部 第二校舎棟 545共同研究室
司会: 井手一郎助教授 (本学経済学部)
要約:We(Yasuyuki Sawada and Satoshi Shimizutani) investigate whether people were insured against unexpected losses caused by the Great Hanshin-Awaji Kobe) earthquake in 1995 by employing an unusually rich household data. Several empirical findings have emerged in keeping with the spirit of Rosenzweig and Wolpin's (2000) natural 'natural experiments' in economics.
First, the complete consumption insurance hypothesis is overwhelmingly rejected, which suggests the ineffectiveness of the formal and/or informal insurance mechanisms in achieving efficient resource allocation. We then investigate possible factors which inhibit full risk-sharing by looking at households' risk-coping behaviors.
We found that the risk-coping means were specific to the nature of the loss caused by the earthquake. For example, against housing damages, households borrow extensively whereas dissavings were utilized to compensate for smaller damage caused to assets. This implies the existence of a hierarchy of risk-coping measures, starting from dissaving to borrowing. Our empirical results suggest that provision of subsidized loan programs to victims can be an appropriate policy tool that is less susceptible to serious moral hazard problem.
Keywords: natural disasters; risk-sharing; risk-coping strategies.

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